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中心議題：
        *日本鋰離子電池產地嚴重損傷

地震、海嘯、核危機之后連認真分析日本的毀傷程度也變得很困難。生命損失駭人聽聞。基礎設施與工業毫無疑問要經歷一個長期的回復過程，各種規模的業務所受的影響也需要經歷長期調查。

全球汽車市場所受的影響已經廣為人知，電子產業也遭遇巨變，因為日本是全球第三大經濟體、是電子產品與元器件產量最大的國家之一。日本也是鋰離子（Li-ion）等類型電池組件的重要產地。歷史上絕大部分電池由日本生產。

電池的很多組件都是獨一無二的，很少有第二家來源，因此業界的供應鏈有一些弱點，如果這些元件中的任何一樣供應不足都有可能造成嚴重的短缺。從單塊電池內的組件到大型電力汽車電池全部都在日本生產，因此電池產業和消費類電子產品之類的終端產品都會受到波及。

潛在問題

索尼的情形可能是報道最多、最受關注的。索尼、三洋、松下占鋰離子電池供應的很大一部分。福島兩家生產鋰離子可充電電池電芯的工廠就屬于索尼能源設備（Sony Energy Device），在地震發生后立刻被關閉。這些工廠每周的電芯產量大約為300萬塊。

電池電芯供應的縮減可能會導致全球市場電池價格的上揚，有可能導致從醫療設備到筆記本電腦在內的一切產品價格上漲。電池產業曾經見識過停產的影響——幾年前松下的一家電芯工廠曾發生火災，在往前幾年則是非常公開的筆記本電腦著火事件。

全球只是幾家大型電芯生產商，其中一家停產就會帶來廣泛影響。筆記本著火事件引發了對供應鏈以及一線采購商分配到大部分電芯的擔憂。因為大部分電芯為消費類電子產品所用，對軍事、醫療、工業應用等小型采購方的影響會比高價更嚴重——戴爾和惠普買下大多數電芯之后是不是還能滿足基本供應需求讓人非常擔憂。日本此次的災難還沒造成這種影響，但存在著這樣的可能性。

智能電池、電子燃油表的核心電子元器件以及與之搭配的安全芯片也在日本生產。德州儀器是這類芯片的最大供應商。德州儀器的“Impedance Track”產品線由該公司的模擬設備業務部生產，占據著現代智能電池市場的一角。

德州儀器在3月14日宣布日本的地震對該公司位于美惠——東京西北40公里處——的晶圓廠造成了嚴重損傷。按營收計算，該晶圓產的產品占德州儀器2010年全部產出的10%，其中有超過三分之一是DLP，剩下的全是模擬設備。恢復全面生產最早得到今年7月中旬。

熟悉電池行業的人都知道，芯片的配給并不少見，28周的交貨期多很多部件來說稀松平常，所以這次的自然災害很有可能對供應鏈造成更大的挑戰。

雖然很多鋰電池電芯和封裝制造從日本轉移到了中國，很多電芯內部使用的主要材料例如正極和負極粉、隔膜、電解質、黏結劑等仍然幾乎全部由日本特定工廠生產，這就可能引發更大的問題。

例如吳羽化工(Kunreha) 生產全球鋰電池中70%的負極凝膠劑，而它唯一的材料生產地就在福島的易威奇工廠，這一地區受地震、海嘯和輻射泄漏的影響非常大，自地震后就已經關閉了。吳羽化工的 CEO Takao Iewasaki 在接受《華爾街時報》采訪時表示，災難加速了工廠將制造遷往海外的計劃。

輪流停電也一直是擔心的問題。由于核電產的關閉，日本最大的電力公司東京電力公司(TEPCO)和仙臺的Tohoku電力公司正在相應地區實施輪流停電，TEPCO為東京和周邊的7個人口眾多的縣提供電力，其中包括神奈川縣、札幌縣和千葉縣。

德州儀器宣布有計劃地重新啟動其工廠的生產，從5月開始，陸續啟動數條生產線。然而，由于電網不穩定、頻繁重啟將不利于半導體設備維護，這一計劃也可能被推遲。回復電池生產，發揮全部產能的努力，將取決于不明朗的和核危機如何持續。

全局

日本正面臨二戰后最嚴重的危機以及歷史上最嚴重的自然災害之一。災難失蹤和死亡人數達2.8萬，政府估計僅僅物質損失就達3000億美元，是全世界迄今未知造成損失最大的自然災害。和其它問題相比，消費電子設備的鋰電池生產遇到的問題算是小問題。但許多利基市場遭受到的損害和鋰電池生產類似，從這一點來看，全球復蘇將持久且復雜。

下一頁原文參考:The Battery Industry Struggles In The Earthquake’s Aftermath

Author:Robin Tichy

It's difficult to even contemplate the extent of destruction in Japan after the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis. The loss of life and livelihood is horrifying. There will undoubtedly be a long recovery process for infrastructure and industry, and there is a long discovery process for the implications on businesses large and small.

While the effect on the global vehicle market has been well publicized, there has also been a great upheaval in the electronics industry since Japan is the world’s third largest economy and one of the highest volume producers of electronics goods and components. Japan is a crucial site for the manufacture of many parts for lithium-ion (Li-ion) and other battery packs. Historically, most cells have been made in Japan.

Many parts in batteries are unique and rarely dual-sourced, so the industry has several weak points in the supply chain and the potential for massive shortages if any one part is unavailable. Everything from parts inside the individual cell to full large-scale electric vehicle packs are manufactured in Japan, so the effect on the battery industry and end products like consumer electronics will be far reaching.

Potential Problems

Sony’s situation is probably the best publicized and the most notable. Sony, Sanyo, and Panasonic make up a very large part of the Li-ion cell supply. Two factories that produce Li-ion rechargeable battery cells in Fukushima belong to Sony Energy Device, and they were immediately shut down after the earthquake. These factories probably manufacture about 3 million cells a week.

The decrease in battery cell supply may lead to a rise in battery price on the global market, which could translate into more expensive prices for everything from medical equipment to laptop computers. The battery industry has seen the effect of halted production before—after a fire at a Panasonic cell factory a couple years ago, and after the very public laptop fires a couple years before that.

There are only a few large cell manufacturers, and the effect of having one of them lose capacity is far reaching. The laptop fires led to concern about supply and the allocation of large amounts of cells to the top tier customers. Since most cells are used by large volume consumer electronics, the effect on smaller customers, like those with military, medical, and industrial applications, was worse than higher prices—overall availability was a large concern after Dell and HP bought up most of the cell supply. We have yet to see this effect from the Japan disaster, but it is a possibility.

Key electronic components in smart battery packs, the fuel gauge, and its accompanying safety chip are also manufactured in Japan. Texas Instruments (TI) is the biggest supplier of these chips. TI’s Impedance Track line of gas gauges, manufactured by the company’s analog devices group, has a corner on the modern smart battery market.

TI announced on March 14 that the earthquake in Japan badly damaged the company's semiconductor fab in Miho, about 40 miles northwest of Tokyo. This fab produced about 10% of TI’s output as measured by revenue in 2010, of which more than a third was digital light projection (DLP), but the remainder was analog devices. There are not plans to return to full production at this plant until the middle of July at the earliest.

Those familiar with the battery industry know that it is not uncommon to have the silicon on allocation; 26-week lead times were already common for many parts, so this natural disaster has the potential to lead to an even more challenging supply chain.

While much of the Li-ion cell and battery pack manufacturing has been moved to China from Japan, many of the key materials within the cell, such as the anode and cathode powder, the separator, electrolytes, and binders are still almost exclusively made at specific plants in Japan. This could be the bigger problem.

For example, Kureha has a 70% share of the global market for an anode binder used in Li-ion batteries. The only place where Kureha makes this material is at its Iwaki plant in Fukushima prefecture, an area greatly affected by the earthquake, tsunami, and radiation leaks. The plant has been shut down since the quake. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Takao Iwasaki, Kureha’s chief executive, said the disasters would accelerate the company’s plans to move more of its production overseas.

Rolling blackouts are still an ongoing concern. Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), Japan’s largest electric utility, and Tohoku Electric Power Company, based in Sendai, have structured rolling power cuts throughout their areas of coverage because of reduced supply with the shut-down nuclear facilities. TEPCO supplies electricity to Tokyo and seven surrounding prefectures with relatively large populations, including Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba.

TI announced it plans to restart production at its plant in stages, beginning with several lines in May. However, the company stated that the schedule could be delayed if the region’s power grid is unstable or if further complications prevent the restart of sensitive semiconductor equipment. Efforts to get the battery industry back up and running at full capacity depend on the unfolding nuclear crisis.

The Big Picture

Japan is facing its worst crisis since World War II and one of the worst natural disasters ever. Almost 28,000 are dead or missing and the government estimates the material damage alone could top $300 billion, making it by far the world’s costliest natural disaster. Li-ion battery manufacturing for consumer electronics is a relatively small problem given the scope of other issues. But when one considers that there are probably many niche industries being affected similarly, it seems that the world will have a long and complicated recovery.